Earl Thomas news. Casual glance at Texans cap space present AND future. I might be totally wrong on this, because math was never my best subject in school, but it doesn’t. look. good.
As Texans reportedly pursue Earl Thomas, here’s why the Cowboys never made a play for him
By Charles Robinson, Yahoo Sports
Yahoo Sports writer Charles Robinson provides a robust article outlining why the Cowboys never brought Earl Thomas into the fold. Despite the Texans clearly showing interest in Thomas, especially with poor play and now an injury to A.J. Moore, the article is an ice-cold bucket of sobering analysis thrown directly onto this particular hot topic.
I encourage everyone to follow the link and read the article in its entirety as I have intentionally left out A LOT of Robinson’s commentary here. The article goes into great detail. But before the excerpts to his article, I did a dumb thing by peeking at Texans 2021 projected cap space numbers (Spotrac.com) so I’m leading off with my thoughts first and then Robinson’s article about E.T. who I now hope does NOT come home.
Are the 0-3 woes enough to throw more money at the Safety position when a) Texans Free Safety Eric Murray is an almost un-droppable player with a whopping $10.75 million dead cap hit in 2020 and a $6.5 million dead cap hit in 2021, and b) Houston has roughly $9 million in 2020 cap space that would surely be nearly completely consumed by even a 1-year contract for Thomas who c) has had a myriad of troubles on and off the field?
It’s possible that Bill O’Brien has painted himself into a tight corner with the Eric Murray contract, as well as a few other contracts such as Whitney Mercilus and Nick Martin (more on that in a bit). There is no GOOD solution here when it comes to Murray/Thomas. And it’s doubtful any team would trade even a paltry 7th rounder for Eric Murray considering the bloated and performance deficient contract a team would absorb by doing so. There is no good solution here.
Lastly, in 2021, the Texans have 38 players under contract and are currently projected at roughly $6.9 million over the projected salary-cap limit of $175 million. Let me repeat: Houston is projected to be $7m OVER the cap with only 38 players under contract for 2021. 15 more are needed for a 53-man roster. Notables: Watt at $17.5m and no dead cap hit. Cooks due $12m in salary but zero dead cap hit. David Johnson a $9m cap hit with only a $2.1m dead cap hit (a $7m “savings” if cut). Those 3 players represent the largest savings available, amounting to around $36.5m – $6.9m (currently over) = about $30m in space for 2021 to spend on 15 more players (avg. of $2m per player) to round out a 53-man roster (and this doesn’t account for cap hits for 2021 Texans rookie Draft class, either).
There are other players Houston can cut and save money on the cap, such as McKinney ($7m savings if cut), Nick Martin ($6.25m savings if cut), Kelemete ($5.5m savings if cut), Brandon Dunn ($3.25m savings if cut), and Fells around $1.3m savings if cut, amounting to around $23.3m but you have to find players to replace those players.
So we wanna’ talk about moving on from BoB? OK. Who out there wants to be a HC or a GM for a team in this predicament, especially with no Round 1 and Round 2 pick in 2021? If a GM wants a real challenge, he has a great “opportunity” in Houston. It seems inevitable that both Cooks ($0 dead cap hit) and Fuller (a 2021 FA, by the way) will be gone, as well as David Johnson at the rate he’s playing thus far. It’s plausible that Watt would be a cap casualty, as well, though there are trade possibilities I suppose (He’s a 2022 FA). Of note: Mrs. Watt now plays for Chicago. Chicago is about a 3-hour drive from Green Bay, and vice versa. However, Chicago has like $1m in projected 2021 cap space and Packers only about $4m.
So here’s some stuff about Earl Thomas. I’m headed to the E.R. to have my stomach pumped from all the Clorox I just drank after doing even a casual look at the cap problems and inherent roster construction “challenges” facing this team in 2021. Sure, why not. Bring him in. FML.
Excerpts from the Robinson article on Earl Thomas:
It’s worth considering why Dallas had consternation that Houston apparently didn’t. I reached out to handful of sources with insight on how Thomas arrived at this point — three games into an NFL season and needing a bit of a lifeline from the Texans. More to the point, why was Dallas so reticent to roll the dice on a player who has previously made it clear he wanted to play for the franchise?
The answer wasn’t one thing. It was outlined through sources familiar with Thomas’ end in Seattle and Baltimore, two franchises that were content to move forward without him. That is a word that should be underscored here. Content.
Despite boasting considerable talent, Thomas was shown the door by two franchises that pride themselves on being able to handle mercurial players. Thomas wore out his welcome in both places. And the problems arose from essentially three issues.
Among them …
On-field reliability
In Seattle, despite Thomas’ considerable coverage skills — and they were certainly elite during his Seahawks tenure — he also had a penchant for occasionally freelancing that put stress on the back end of the scheme.
Locker room chemistry
As one Ravens source pointed out, this was a franchise that made it work with guys like Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin and Marcus Peters. They could be a handful as personalities, but they ultimately established immense respect rather than rubbing teammates the wrong way.
That never happened with Thomas. Then during 2020 training camp, he punched Chuck Clark, who has a reputation as a humble, hard-working and very popular teammate. That was the last straw as far as some Ravens players were concerned.
Off-field trust
His Seahawks run — despite an unceremonious end that led to him flipping off his own sideline — wasn’t marred by a lot of trust issues. But the Ravens? It went south fast.
The first major blow: Baltimore’s brain trust was furious about having no advance warning about a highly publicized domestic incident between Thomas and his wife, which mushroomed when TMZ printed the salacious details and left the Ravens scrambling to catch up.
The Ravens also were upset that Thomas chose his social media accounts as an avenue to try and sweep the incident away, rather than relying on silence and guidance from the franchise.
That wasn’t the only significant breach.
A second, and ultimately relationship-ending, issue developed at a critical moment when Baltimore was deciding whether the situation with Thomas could be salvaged following his fight with Clark.
That was when Thomas posted parts of practice film on his social media pages, which the team considered a massive slap in the face. Some in the organization knew at that moment that there would be no turning back. Even Thomas’ limited supporters acknowledged internally that it was time to leave him behind.